Michigan State vs Indiana 10/16/2021

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Michigan State winning 51% of simulations, and Indiana 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Michigan State commits fewer turnovers in 22% of simulations and they go on to win 67% when they take care of the ball. Indiana wins 61% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Payton Thorne is averaging 253 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (38% chance) then he helps his team win 69%. Michael Penix Jr. is averaging 271 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (39% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is IND +4.5 --- Over/Under line is 48.5
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